Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1128Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 01/2029Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 May).

III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 109
Predicted 02 May-04 May 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/10