Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (02 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1607Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 068
Predicted   02 May-04 May 068/070/072
90 Day Mean        01 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  014/015-008/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10