Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 01/1145Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 01/0713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 775 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 068
Predicted   02 May-04 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        01 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  010/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/15