Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0257Z from Region 2335 (S15E63). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at 01/1348Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1833Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           01 May 100

Predicted   02 May-04 May 100/100/100

90 Day Mean        01 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/20

Minor Storm           25/20/20

Major-severe storm    25/10/10