Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May,
04 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
393 km/s at 01/1810Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2139Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 May).

III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 126
Predicted 02 May-04 May 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 01 May 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 012/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/25