Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 01/1506Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (03 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 099
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 008/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25