Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 071
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 014/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/30