Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 29/2314Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 069
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 010/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/20