Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 01/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 872 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 067
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 068/070/072
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/20