Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 973 km/s at 01/1105Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 01/1115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 01/1110Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 081
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 081/082/081
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  024/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  016/022-013/016-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25