Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 01/0719Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0423Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 554 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 097
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25