Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/1613Z from Region 2290 (N21W83). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 593 km/s at 01/0454Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2301Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 128
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 021/025-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
