Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 01/1106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5115 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 070
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 071/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20