Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
June 1, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0143Z from Region 2661 (N05E64). There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 01/2025Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 802 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Jun, 04 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 076
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 076/077/078
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  009/010-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.