Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0137Z from Region 2079 (N12E63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 325 km/s at
31/2228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1320Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 103
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 006/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/20/20