Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 739 km/s at 01/1114Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 01/0758Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 01/0041Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17174
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (04
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 106
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 033/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 018/020-010/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/15