Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 30/2201Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 01/0317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 094
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 008/008-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/25