Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 30/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5240 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 068
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15