Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 01/2012Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 01/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/0926Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 071
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  018/023-019/023-011/011

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/20/40