Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 01/1050Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/0341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 233 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 072
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 072/075/075
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 018/025-020/025-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/15
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/55/20