Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/2211Z from Region 2376 (N13E57). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 446 km/s at 01/1318Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1336Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 01/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5953 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     05/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           01 Jul 109

Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 110/115/120

90 Day Mean        01 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  008/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  006/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10