Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1123Z from Region 2106 (N15E46). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul,
04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
01/0500Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0146Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 152
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 007/008-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05