Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1516Z from Region 1785 (S09E76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
610 km/s at 01/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2342Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5846 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 108
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/20