Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 01/0012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (02 Jan, 04 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 080
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 080/079/079
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/10