Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2020

By SpaceRef Editor
January 1, 2020
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 01/1418Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1442Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 072
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10


SpaceRef staff editor.