Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 01/0027Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 609 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 073
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  008/010-009/012-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/45