Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0948Z from Region 2473 (S21W73). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 537 km/s at 01/0924Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 31/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 31/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1465 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 20/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 098
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 025/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 014/018-014/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/40