Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0507Z from Region 2253 (S07E35). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at 01/0032Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 138
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-012/015-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
