Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
01/1852Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 01/1334Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/1334Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Jan,
03 Jan, 04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 160
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 014/020-011/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/20