Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 Feburary 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 31/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15275 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 076
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 076/076/075
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  017/022-014/016-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/35
Major-severe storm    45/35/35