- Status Report
- Jan 27, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 Feburary 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 31/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15275 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 076
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 076/076/075
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 017/022-014/016-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/35
Major-severe storm 45/35/35