Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 01/0500Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1937Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Feb, 03 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 069
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 070/071/071
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/35