Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01/0114Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at 01/1005Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 31/2108Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 100
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 009/008-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/25