Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 60/55/55
Class X 20/15/15
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 142
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 016/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb