Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 1, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb

Class M    60/55/55

Class X    20/15/15

Proton     20/15/15

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           01 Feb 142

Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125

90 Day Mean        01 Feb 153

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  015/019

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  016/020-012/015-010/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                45/35/20

Minor Storm           25/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/20

Minor Storm           25/35/35

Major-severe storm    70/45/30

 

SpaceRef staff editor.