Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 01/0624Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 30/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 527 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 086
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 086/084/080
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 010/010-011/016-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/25
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/50/35