Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 30/2151Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/1736Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 071
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 006/005-007/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25