Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0641Z from Region 2222 (S21E03). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 615 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/1748Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 168
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 009/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
