Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 31/2156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 483 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 075
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15