Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 01/1342Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 597 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 070
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  006/006-006/006-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/30