Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01/0747Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/1716Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5842 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 074
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 074/076/078
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/15