Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 1, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 31/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (04 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 072
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 020/032-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 30/25/10
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/35
Major-severe storm 65/55/40

SpaceRef staff editor.