Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1448Z from Region 2130 (S07E27). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/2044Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1415Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1650Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 168
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/010-013/014-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/30