Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 419 km/s at
01/0952Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1502 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Aug, 04
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 112
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 006/008-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/25