Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 01/0234Z from Region 2981 (S26E18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/1436Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 31/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/0934Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 31/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 75/75/35
Class X 30/30/05
Proton 50/50/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 147
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 145/130/115
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 018/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 011/012-011/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/45/30
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/35/25
Major-severe storm 40/55/40