Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 31/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1123 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 069
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20