Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2018

USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 01/0627Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3767 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 069
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10