Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0050Z from Region 2022 (N17E10). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr,
04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at
01/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/1336Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1403Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (04
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 153
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 016/020-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/05
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 60/30/05