Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 01/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2547 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 074
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 014/018-009/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/10
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 60/40/10