Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF 13 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 13 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains below 300 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated unsettled periods are possible on 14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Sep 066
• Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 002/001
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01