Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity Aug 31 2306

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 31 2306 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 905 (S08W67) produced multiple B-class flares during the period. Region 906 (S09W51) is a rapidly emerging, newly numbered region. This region produced a B7 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1748Z and had an associated Type IV radio emission in addition to a Tenflare with a peak flux of 740 sfu.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flares from both Regions 905 and 906.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for active to isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 03 September due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep

• Class M 01/05/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Aug 083
• Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 090/095/090
• 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 004/005-004/010-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10