Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S13W53 –
Eai/beta-gamma) produced two low-level C-class flares. It showed
little change during the period and retained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Newly-numbered Region 1568 (S12W29 – Dso/beta-gamma)
emerged early in the period and rapidly developed into a D-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. It produced a single
low-level C-class flare. There was no Earth-directed CME activity
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 – 3 (10 – 12 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 3 (10 – 12 September)
with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight chance for active
levels on day 3 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 123
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 120/115/110
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/20